Is Mr. Emin Yurumaz a Prophet? | Whereabouts of the Dollar Yen

On March 28, the dollar rose to 125 yen.

Someone expected this surge about a week ago. 

収束しません。もっと加速します。 https://t.co/xoOgoZ7OgB

— Emin Yurumazu (エミンユルマズ) (@yurumazu) March 21, 2022

"Does not converge. Accelerate more."— Emin Yurumazu (@yurumazu) March 21, 2022 

Speaking of March 21, the high dollar-yen pair has already reached the mid-119 yen level.

After that, it continued to skyrocket with almost no return.

It seems that many traders predicted that the upper limit would be 118 to 120 yen.

In the opinion of Ogawa of the financial industry on the following day, the title is "Intensifying Yen Depreciation Threat Theory", "I think that the dollar / yen pair is quite solid today, but the 120 yen mark is approaching, so it's a little. It may slow down a little because people who see the situation and sales will come out. "

Mosate Dollar / Yen Range Forecast 2022/3/22 (oshiemasu.info)

That said, in the opinion of Mr. Koji Fukaya, which was sent on the 23rd, there were many people who mentioned 125 yen, "I think there is a risk of trying around the latest high of 125 yen." ..

Mosate Dollar / Yen Range Forecast 2021/3/17 (oshiemasu.info)

In the case of Mr. Yurumazu, the price was not up to how many yen, so maybe he was expecting a higher price.

ドル高円安は予想通りもっと加速しました。ただし、ドル円は短期で加熱しすぎなので一休みしそうです。 https://t.co/6j8YIqPCe6

"The strong dollar and weak yen accelerated as expected. However, the dollar-yen pair is overheated in a short period of time, so it looks like we will have a rest."— Emin Yurumazu (@yurumazu) March 28, 2022

However, as mentioned on Twitter, it was a short period of time, so it may seem that the pace is slowing down a little from here.

However, it is a little uneasy for consumers to have some implications here, saying "it looks like it".

Why can Mr. Yurumazu mention it in such a clear tone?

It seems that he explains from an academic point of view in the light of the current situation.

米国人の過処分所得(前年比成長率)の1960年以降のチャート。今マイナス10%です。前代未聞の悪化。バブル崩壊は予言ではありませんよ。サイエンスです。 pic.twitter.com/Eb4Mmv9K7G

— Emin Yurumazu (エミンユルマズ) (@yurumazu) March 28, 2022

"Chart of American over-disposal income (year-on-year growth rate) since 1960. Now it's minus 10%. Unprecedented deterioration. The bursting of the bubble is not a prophecy. It's science."— Emin Yurumazu (@yurumazu) March 28, 2022

In other words, scholars simply state a certain kind of law or regularity, and since these themselves do not change according to our feelings and hopes, they are stating the absolute.

And there is no guarantee that it will always hit because various factors are added, and uncertainty arises there.

Even if the prediction is wrong, it is a prediction and it is a matter of probability, so there is no clear responsibility for the speaker.

If you want to hold someone accountable, you have to reason and question them in the same way.

However, if someone instigate people with unfounded or thin words and deeds from the beginning, this person should be held accountable.

The only caveat is that when Mr. Yurumazu predicts a fall in U.S. stocks or mentions a temporary rebound, you shouldn't take it as selling or buying.

As you can see in many of his own statements, it should be used as a guide to be cautious when taking your position.

How many investors from Japan can be warned by this Middle Eastern-born scholar with his book, The Burst of the Everything Bubble?

The Burst of Everything Bubble | Emin Yurumaz | Books | Mail Order --Amazon.co.jp