you can’t rely on your parents forever
Preparing for “Departure Akimoto Shock”
In addition, it gives the impression that it is difficult to hold for a long time because it is not stable due to repeated sharp rises and falls.
The characteristic is to buy based on rumors and sell based on facts.
Expectations rise before idol events and new projects, but as soon as this is over, this tends to fall.
Normally, we would be happy if the stock price rises, but with this stock, there is a strong element of anxiety about when it will fall if it goes up. It is a composition that goes on.
Some of the idol fans who hold stocks of KeyHolder may have high hopes for the success of Nogizaka46 and SKE48.
However, idols generally have no choice but to adopt a strategy of slenderness and longevity if the boom is over.
If you think about it, the downward trend of KeyHolders over the last 10 years is very similar to the trend of idols, which makes sense in a sense, and there is little hope that the existing idol business can be used as a material for rising stock prices.
If there's any reason to see hope in this stock, it's probably because Yasushi Akimoto is a major shareholder, and because he's devoting himself to KeyHolder-related business to boost the stock, it's a surprise to the market.
But will Mr. Akimoto try to raise his stock price?
If he gave up his stock of KeyHolder altogether...
I would like to write a little about the reasons why new individual shareholders are not approaching and the reality that current shareholders are vaguely aware of but want to turn away from.
The view that SKE48's new performance is an excuse for Mr. Yasushi Akimoto to withdraw
The difference between the perspective of fans and investors of “Departure Akimoto”
Considering Mr. Akimoto as the axis of the stock price, it is natural to pay close attention to the trends of the idol group SKE48 and its office Zest Co., Ltd., which led him to own KeyHolder stock.
It means that Mr. Akimoto's actions toward SKE48 will be persuasive to shareholders, not whether or not they will directly affect the stock price.
In 2022, SKE48 held a new performance.
A rarity in the 48 group.
What attracted attention was that the producer was Mr. Tetsuya Komuro, and that Mr. Akimoto's name was not included in the lyrics.
Until now, with a few exceptions, the lyrics for 48 Groups have been exclusively written by Mr. Akimoto.
There was also a part that used his fame as a billboard.
Since Akimoto's name is completely absent, it was said that the SKE48 fan community is trying to "Departure Akimoto".
In an interview, Mr. Hiromitsu Takada, the president of Zest, said that he asked Mr. Akimoto who would be the producer of the new performance, and Mr. Akimoto said Mr. Komuro's name, so it seems that it is not completely unrelated.
However, what cannot be ignored from an investor's point of view is this "departure from Akimoto", which can be seen as a sign that "Mr. Akimoto will give up his KeyHolder stock".
The economic world is a world of sophistry.
It is a common practice in the economic world to blame market fluctuations on some phenomenon.
The United States blames Russia's invasion of Ukraine for the rise in world prices, and the Bank of Japan says that the reason for the yen's depreciation is that the dollar is strong, not the yen's depreciation.
Inflation is not just Putin's fault ... the biggest cause is in US policies | Business Insider Japan
In my personal opinion, I do not deny these excuses.
I think that's possible.
However, I think there is a difference between presenting with the core part as the cause or making the presentation with the skin part as the cause.
Lies are bad, but it's up to the individual to decide what to emphasize.
Even if it's unclear and under-explained, I think it's fine as long as it satisfies investors and the many emotionally indifferent and ignorant citizens of the economy.
So, if you really want to make a profit as an investor, you have to look at the whole, whether it's the core part or the skin part of what the business leaders are saying, even if it's all the skin like an onion, and then you can find delicious taste from there.
Is Akimoto a trustworthy person?
That is a little off topic, but in order to avoid being held accountable for fluctuations in the market, those in charge of the business world will link various events and implement measures that are strongly related to each other to lay the groundwork.
Therefore, even if Mr. Akimoto gives up the stock of KeyHolder with the unrealized loss, the Zest side will say, "Departing from Akimoto was part of the business plan, I've been saying that since 2021, see”.
And if Mr. Akimoto say, "I've been saying for a long time that I'm going to create a new idol group with Sony. I'm entrusting Nogizaka and SKE48 to my successor," the new performance will be a definite excuse.
Mr. Akimoto is fine with an unrealized loss of 3 billion.
He is a professional for business like robbing Peter to pay Paul.
He continues to make up for the losses one after another by creating new businesses while holding on to old businesses.
He may want to offset it with a new business with Sony.
I don't know if it will work, but it makes sense that he might think so, given his business model so far.
I believe that Mr. Akimoto, KeyHolder, and Zest will make efforts to minimize losses as much as possible.
And with all their might.
Mr. Akimoto does not have many opportunities to take on challenges.
But I don't know if he'll stick to the unrealized profit.
It is usually said that it is important to look at the key persons and representatives of the company to see if the stock is safe or not.
Is the president a responsible person, a trustworthy person, a person who will proceed according to the business plan, and a person who will not give up or run away in the middle?
That part is important, so many investors look at the manager's educational background and career.
I don't think people should be judged by their educational background, but it's a pretty important indicator when it comes to stock prices.
Mr. Akimoto is not the president, but he is a person who has influence on the stock price of the KeyHolder.
With that in mind, I think it's not surprising that his "escape habit", "hidden habit", and "excuses habit" are a source of anxiety for many investors.
On the other hand, some speculators may take advantage of Akimoto's fame and achievements to temporarily raise the stock price, taking advantage of the Key Holder's low stock price and trading volume.
In the future, if the KeyHolder offer discount tickets for Nogizaka46 and SKE48, I think it is unlikely that Mr. Yasushi Akimoto will sell his stocks.
Because I don't think it's a company without a shred of ethics that prioritizes reforms by doing things that cause big losses to fans.
But if KeyHolder is not going to give fans specials, you might want to be a little more prepared.
Departure from Akimoto is a matter of course for the long-term management of KeyHolder and Zest
There may be people who think that the plan to leave Akimoto, which may exist, is unfair and palliative.
I have written in that tone, and in the NGT48 incident, he actually chose to escape.
The culprit lies in the AKB Group system created by Yasushi Akimoto | LITERA (lite-ra.com)
There are people who say that SKE48 and NGT48 have different offices and different managers, but the world sees them in the same way.
The market and the world are made up of values.
If you are a fan of an idol or Mr. Akimoto, you should support him with selfishness.
If you think of unrealized losses as donations, the pain will be alleviated.
However, if you are an investor, it is also important to imagine the various emotions of the public.
It means that you need to think about what "everyone" thinks, not what "you" think.
However, don't you think that leaving Akimoto is a very reasonable attempt to run a company?
Even if he is a major shareholder, and even if he has excellent connections in the entertainment world as a lyricist and producer, they cannot rely on Mr. Akimoto forever.
That could be the cause of the long-term stagnation of KeyHolder stock prices.
Therefore, this Departure from Akimoto can be rephrased as Departure from Akimoto dependence.
It sounds a little better this way, and you can expect positive management policies.
I'm not saying KeyHolder stock prices will go down, nor am I saying there's no hope.
However, I would like to say that those who are going to buy stocks of KeyHolder in the future need to consider the expected value after the "Departure from Akimoto shock" and "departure from Akimoto" that may come.
From the psychological and strategic point of view of shareholders, it seems that Mr. Akimoto's buying price will be one guideline.
Also, even if it's not the Akimoto shock, individual stocks tend to move very faithfully to the adage "buy on rumors and sell on facts", so it's necessary to be vigilant a few days after the debut of a new idol group.
It will be necessary to pay attention to whether there is a change in Mr. Akimoto's holdings as a result of the decline.
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